Political Economy Review- Middle of July 2025
The busy and prosperous month of July is now more than halfway done. Let's recap some of the latest developments (not in chronological order) throughout the first half of the month.
On July 4, President Trump signed the "One Big Beautiful Bill" into law. This bill ensures that Americans will experience a tax cut while also streamlining Medicaid and other government services. These elements of the bill will ensure economic success and prosperity, alongside proper monetary policy stemming from the Fed. The bill also allocates funds to ICE and for border security, to ensure that legal immigration and the law are upheld to the highest degree.
On July 7, President Trump extended the July 9 deadline for certain tariffs on specific nations to August 1 via an executive order. This comes amid great success in markets, with indexes such as the S&P and the Dow at all-time highs. These successes in markets likely pushed President Trump to extend this tariff deadline, with the hopes of keeping markets and the economy on track while enforcing his "America First" foreign policy.
On July 15, the Fed released the CPI data for June. The price rose 2.7% from last year to this year, with the core CPI at 2.9%. This signals a 0.3% increase from June, which is likely the result of tariffs implemented a few months ago, sparking concern among some economists about the state of the economy. On the other hand, some, including President Trump, view the situation as a time to lower interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell has refused to do so, Trump is considering firing him, and has even drafted a letter to send to Powell. We will continue to monitor this situation closely to track its progression.
Well, that is the first half of July for you. See you next time!
References
Ballotpedia, "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (overview of tax, Medicaid, SNAP, and border security provisions). https://ballotpedia.org/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act
USAFacts, "What's in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act'?" https://usafacts.org/articles/whats-in-the-one-big-beautiful-bill/
The White House, "President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Is Now the Law," July 4, 2025. https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2025/07/president-trumps-one-big-beautiful-bill-is-now-the-law/
Al Jazeera, "Trump's New Tariffs: Who Is Hit, What's Next, How Is the World Responding?" July 8, 2025 (confirms the July 7 executive order extending the deadline to August 1). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/8/trumps-new-tariffs-who-is-hit-whats-next-how-is-the-world-responding-2
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Consumer Price Index News Release - 2025 M06 Results," July 15, 2025. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07152025.htm
CNBC, "CPI Inflation Report June 2025," July 15, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/cpi-inflation-report-june-2025.html
ABC News, "Trump Told GOP Lawmakers He Would 'Likely' Fire Fed Chair Powell 'Soon,' Sources and Officials Say," July 16, 2025. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-told-gop-lawmakers-fire-fed-chair-powell/story?id=123806097
CNBC, "Trump Denies That He Plans to Fire Powell: 'Highly Unlikely,'" July 16, 2025 (confirms the draft letter reporting). https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/trump-powell-fed-fire.html
