Political Economy Review- Middle of June 2025
So far, June 2025 has been a month of shifting and evolving economic tides. From trade talks with China to the fallout between Trump and Musk, June has kept investors and financial analysts on their toes.
On June 6, May's job report was released, detailing that the economy gained 139,000 non-farm jobs. This number, though being less than April's 177,000 jobs gained, was more than the 125,000 jobs expected for May. This indicates that the economy is in a stable state, with gradual growth being the primary outcome of current economic activity. Following the job's report, on June 11, May's CPI data came in at 2.4%, meaning a 2.4% increase in the price of goods from May 2024 by 2.4%, with core CPI coming in at 2.8% (excluding non-volatile goods such as food and energy). These numbers were lower than expected, indicating that the economy is on the right track and in a more stable position than it was in recent months.
On June 9-10, Delegates from the US and China met in London to discuss trade relations between the two nations. The US delegation, led by Scott Bessent, represented the US's interests in securing a rare earth minerals deal with China, in exchange for the US allowing Chinese students to study in American Universities. This trade deal helps repair US-China relations after the mid-May blip in the trade agreement between the two nations. Following a call between President Trump and Xi Jinping, the two nations have likely set the stage for improved economic ties for both.
In the early hours of June 13 (Israeli time), Israel launched a significant missile attack against Iran, decimating many military and strategic positions throughout the country. The attack aimed to stop the development of Iran's nuclear program, which Israel and most countries in the region had wanted to do for a long time. The attack ended up damaging Iranian atomic capabilities and killing one of Iran's top military commanders, Hossein Salam. As a result of this attack, oil prices shot up over 7%, and major indexes tanked almost 2%. Up to June 15th, the two nations continue to trade blows, creating an extremely hostile environment in the region that concerns markets around the world.
Those are the significant economic stories and developments through the middle of June. Stay tuned for further news and developments in the coming days and weeks.
References
CNBC, "U.S. Payrolls Increased 139,000 in May, More Than Expected; Unemployment at 4.2%," June 6, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/06/jobs-report-may-2025.html
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Consumer Price Index News Release - 2025 M05 Results," June 11, 2025. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06112025.htm
CNBC, "CPI Inflation Report May 2025: U.S. Inflation Rises 0.1%," June 11, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/11/cpi-inflation-may-2025.html
Fortune, "U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Resolve Trade Dispute After 2 Days of London Talks About Rare Earth Metals and Tech Export Controls," June 11, 2025. https://fortune.com/2025/06/11/us-china-agree-framework-resolve-trade-dispute-london-rare-earth-metals/
The Online Citizen, "US and China Reach Rare Earth and Student Visa Trade Agreement Amid Military Concerns," June 12, 2025. https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2025/06/12/us-and-china-reach-rare-earth-and-student-visa-trade-agreement-amid-military-concerns/
CNN Business, "Oil Prices Jump 7% and Stocks Drop as Israel-Iran Tensions Escalate," June 13, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/13/business/oil-prices-markets-israel-iran-attack-intl-hnk
Morningstar UK, "Global Stocks Fall and Oil Soars After Israel's Strike on Iran," June 13, 2025 (confirms Hossein Salami's death). https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/markets/global-stocks-fall-oil-soars-after-israels-strike-iran
NBC News, "Oil Prices Surge, Stocks Tumble in the Wake of Israel's Strikes on Iran," June 13, 2025. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/oil-prices-surge-stocks-tumble-wake-israels-strikes-iran-rcna212805
